“Future Shoreline” Enrollment, Demographic Trends and Projections

Shoreline School Board April 27, 2015

“Future Shoreline” Enrollment, Demographic Trends and Projections

By Marianne Deal Stephens

The April 27 Shoreline School Board meeting consisted mostly of a Study Session by Demographics and Research Consultant William L. Kendrick, Ph.D. Dr. Kendrick consults for most Puget Sound school districts. The figures and explanations presented below are from Dr. Kendrick’s slides and verbal presentation. 

Previous Projections

Dr. Kendrick last presented to the Shoreline School Board in 2006, and stated then that “The general trend should be one of flat/ declining enrollment between now and 2013 with enrollment increasing after that.” Things did follow that general trend, with enrollment declines 2006-2012, but the school age population increased earlier and more than expected. District enrollment from 1991 to the present is a gentle wave. 

Shoreline School District Enrollment Graph

Demographic Trends 

Dr. Kendrick placed the current trends in historical and geographic context.  

• In the 1990s, the Puget Sound area experienced growth related to Microsoft’s expansion.
• Growth in 2000-2010, related to Amazon.com’s expansion, was not as dramatic as that of the 1990s.
• The 2003-2007 housing boom turned into a housing bubble that burst.
• After the housing bubble popped, people stopped moving as much and home sales and prices declined. Seattle, Bellevue, and Renton all had increases in school enrollment.
• People used to migrate out of the city when they had kids, but that trend is changing. 
• Seattle used to enroll about 50% of kids born in Seattle, and now the trend is about 60%.
• Economists and demographers would have expected births to decline during the economic downturn, but births started to increase even before the turnaround in 2012. 

King County School Enrollment

Most school districts have seen increases in enrollment. King County has 275,167 kids in public schools (2014 figures), which reflects an increase of about 4000 students in each of the last four years. Public schools are growing slightly more than private schools. If birth trends continue to increase, Dr. Kendrick would expect more new private schools in the Seattle area. 

Births

In King County, average annual births from 1996-2005 were 22,173, while the average 2006-2013 was 24,810 (Washington Department of Health Birth Files). Snohomish and Pierce counties also have upward trends. Shoreline and Lake Forest Park account for 2-3% of King County births. In the last 13 years: the low for Shoreline and Lake Forest Park births was 483 in 2003; this year’s kindergarten cohort reflects 615 births in 2009; the high was 657 in 2013 (the most recent year shown). 

Projections

Since there are now more people of childbearing age in the district, Dr. Kendrick projects slow steady growth in the population of school-aged children. He attributes the increases both to an overall demographic (the grandchildren of baby boomers are having children) and to the current growth in the Puget Sound area. Enrollment in King County public schools will increase; in 2014, Shoreline had 3.34% of King County’s public school enrollment. While the Shoreline population is expected to increase in the next 10-15 years and the current real estate market has improved, new housing may or may not be good for K-12 growth. Decisions about rezoning and the configurations of new housing will affect the types of new households. 

The Puget Sound Regional council expects the annual rate of growth in Shoreline and Lake Forest Park to exceed the overall County growth rate, though Dr. Kendrick regards that projection as overly optimistic. He expects Shoreline and Lake Forest Park to grow slightly slower than King County overall. Shoreline will have about 0.5% more growth than Lake Forest Park. 

Though Dr. Kendrick outlined low, medium, and high enrollment forecasts, he supports the medium forecast and expects the Shoreline School District to have 10,000 students by 2020 and 11,000 by 2030.

Shoreline School District Enrollment Projections

Planning

Following Dr. Kendrick’s presentation, Deputy Superintendent Marla Miller and Superintendent Rebecca Miner explained that the district will meld three factors for facility planning: this demographic data; facility assessment (happening currently); and legislative class size decisions.

For further information

The minutes of the 4/27/15 meeting have a more thorough summary of the demographic data. Shoreline School Board Agendas and Minutes