WeatherWatcher: Cold Snap, and the S Word

There has been a lot of cold air in the area lately, this entire week really. Since the cold air has arrived in the region again there has been a lot of talk about the S word. Getting the hopes up of many school children and striking fear into the hearts of most adults around here. Even I am guilty of talking about snow on my weather station website for those who have been checking it.

Uncertainty in the forecasts and various models out there has been causing many many different stories on what might happen this weekend. It's not the predictable snow events I often worry about, it's the ones that are so uncertain that have my ear to the ground on the weather, and are often the most surprising snow events we get.

So, here's the story so far on our winter weather threat. Our cold is going to continue, lows in the low 20's and teens, highs making it to the upper 20's, maybe 30, if we're lucky. Saturday might be slightly warmer but I suspect we will stay below freezing. Sunday is when we will warm up above freezing in theory. I'll have more on this on my weekly weather report.

Precipitation may not be significant due to the jet stream sticking way to the south of us. This is actually the reason for our cold air.

A good rule to follow and in most situations proves true. Jet stream north of us = sunny warm weather. Jet stream south of us = sunny cold weather. Jet stream over us = wet and stormy weather. It's that fine balance of the jet stream wiggling over us and south of us that contributes to snow events here. 

For those who may not know, the jet stream is a high speed river of air at about 30,000-50,000 feet in the atmosphere moving at about 150-300 miles per hour. Most storms travel along this atmospheric river. The good thing about our cold weather? California is getting much needed relief for their drought right now.

Some forecasters, such as the National Weather Service, are expecting some steady moderate snow to develop Friday evening and Saturday, with a gradual changeover to rain Sunday afternoon. Still no accumulations listed, however, due to once again, our friend 'uncertain models'. Other forecasters are predicting no precipitation, which means no snow, or rain until Sunday. There is as much of a chance that we might not see any precipitation at all until Monday, as there is that we have a major snow with several inches on the ground, according to forecasters.

Bottom line, be prepared for winter weather, it's very possible right now. It's still too uncertain with this weather pattern as to what will actually happen and I will be providing more updates as things become more certain.

As always, check for updates at my Shoreline Weather website. I have a twitter feed there that I will keep up to date as best as I can. I will be writing up another article if things become significantly more certain and if any watches or warnings are issued.