WeatherWatcher: More wet snow predicted

1. Last week's highlights
2. This week, more snow? Not again!
3. Longer range, ENSO status

Last week we had a lot of days sit on the border line of freezing temperatures with precipitation, most of which fell as rain and snow mixed. We had a trace amount of snow stick but it was very short lived.

This week there is a new threat of the white stuff which was fulfilled Monday morning with a light dusting of snow. Tuesday and Wednesday we may have more of the white stuff. Temperatures will be about 1 degree colder. Last week the snow level hovered at about 6-700 feet, briefly coming down to about 300 feet. This week it looks like it will get as low as 200ft - sea level at times. 1-3 inches could accumulate in the convergence band, which could form anywhere from Everett to North Seattle (Northgate area). This puts us right in the prime target zone once again, but as before, it could be just too far north to reach us. If any snow accumulates, it will be very wet, and it will probably melt off fairly quickly. Most of this stuff will be over by Wednesday afternoon.

Wednesday afternoon - Friday it looks like we'll be mostly sunny now, with some rain showers here and there that move through. On these clear nights temperatures will most likely hit freezing, so watch for ice on the morning commutes.

Life in the Convergence Zone
Snow on the ground, buds in the trees, sunshine, and rain
Photo by Diane Hettrick

Longer range:

ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) has dissipated to a neutral state. However we have many other longer term oscillations in place that are playing a roll on our weather. This winter was not a typical La Niña winter, with near normal precipitation, and longer than normal dry spells. It's too early yet to tell if this winter season was drier than normal or not, it's fairly close to normal. The Arctic region is still much colder than average, especially for this time of year where it normally starts to warm up. The forecast models for the next 2 weeks are looking for more of what we've been getting now, some breezy mild days mixed with cold fronts bringing snow and rain mixed into the area.

For most of March we may actually have fairly normal March weather, with the exception of rain and snow mixed here and there. I will not rule out the possibility of a strong enough convergence zone band to actually give us a decent shot of additional snow accumulation, though short lived, could easily provide us 2-6 inches at some point down the road. This possibility will exist through the end of April. We will likely see another wind storm as well before summer arrives.

Signs point to an El Niño developing later this spring into summer, I'll have more on that later this week.

My judgment on our local weather is based on my personal studies of historic weather coordinated with the known past of global oscillations and global events, including but not limited to the ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation.) Links to many of my resources can be found at Carl's Shoreline Weather Station, under weather links.

Twitter: @SWeatherWatcher